Summer 2023 - Sevilla FC Transfer Rumors

i kind of agree with Shendm here. GK is one of those critical, high impact positions. im not sure you can get similar value/return per dollar in the other spots.

but i think the broader issue is that Bono likely needed to cash out and maximize his wages in one of his last big contracts. i don’t begrudge any professional athlete for needing that. and so yes, we had to sell for 20 and we wont get 20m in league points/competition wins back for that amount. but we had to do it. so im not going to get bent out of shape about it either. we just have to do the best we can.

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Bro, we’re just fresh off Dolberg & Januzaj signings (who’s still on the books). I’m still recovering from that shit.

Besides, we have quite the history with backup gks. Let Orjan handle them little cup ties, let Dimi concede at the near post once or twice, we’ll be aight. :smile:

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Definitely wishful thinking as the market is open for 10-11 more days and hoping for someone to deliver new quality up front.

Having Courtois or another top keeper is just extra luxury, and Bono has been that too. Just accepting we got to go back to basic. Doesn’t look like Nyland is part of the foundation of the new house either, just part of the temporary campsite we are staying at while we fix the house.

First interview Nyland he says he’s good with his feet and dominant in the box, all in all versatile and wanting to be responsible and reliable for the other players with character and charisma. Didn’t really shine through in the interview, but if it does on the pitch that’s what matters. Good luck to him and hope its true.

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Alright, so I’m going to give you the benefit of the doubt to explain yourself here, because you almost never say stupid shit, in real life or on the forum. But my first instinct is that this is, well, hard to justify on the merits.

How is it that the “return” on a position is inversely correlated with it’s remuneration and transfer value? In other words, why would it make sense that the position on the field that is historically lowest in transfer values and salaries (GK…call me out if that’s empirically not correct and I’m the one saying stupid shit, now)… would somehow be higher impact than the positions with a much greater magnitude of transfer values and salaries.

And don’t get me wrong, I’m 1) a former GK, and 2) a huge fanboy of Bounou (evidence below*), so I’m absolutely concerned to go a season where we struggled to get by WITH Bounou into a season where we hope to perform better WITHOUT Bounou. But, it would beg to reason that if clubs are paying much more for field players, that those positions are in fact more valuable than GK positions. Anyhow, I’m fairly satisfied with the decision to sell Bounou, albeit sad for SFC supporters.

No disrespect to @Rene1 or @ShendM, and in fact, I actually am curious if maybe there’s a different logic at play that I’m missing.

*https://twitter.com/mooreporfavor/status/1691840878740938979?t=IUE9ZGja-QlnQfOujRMX1w&s=19

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Edi might be getting his long lasting wish fulfilled with Pablo Fornals coming in, is that the rise of a new nation? confirmation hopefully soon.

Other name rumoured Benjamin Rollheiser, interesting name but if Fornals gets confirmed that would rule this one out I assume. So its just another fishing line out. Both around same price as well. 8-9m.

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He has to come in strictly as a #10. We’re absolutely starved of creativity at that position that it’s not even funny anymore. I’m hella greatful for how Suso stepped up in the latter part of last season, but we all know the consistency with fitness and/or form isn’t there. I’ve expressed enough on how i feel about Oliver, and Papu… well, there was some magic, but I couldn’t even tell you what happened to him.

I just don’t want to see Fornals on the wing. If it’s to help out coming on as a sub or to cover that position, like he did in the Chelsea game, then fine. I’m just a bit shocked at that 8-9m valuation, even in his final year, and it doesn’t say anywhere that West Ham has agreed to it. So I’m kinda just waiting for the trademark thumbs up from the medical bed and then i can be happy. I also like the fact that he’s Spanish, cause i think we lack representation in the National Team. Does Navas gotta do everything?

You’re not really missing anything, it’s just that the GK is also part of the team’s spine, which we often forget. Hell, I dubbed our defensive core (Fernando - Kounde - Diego Carlos) as the Holy Trinity for a good 2 years until I finally gave Bounou his credit. I think Rene & Shend are referencing the Sergio Rico fall off (which @TimSpence2 was steadily warning us about too), and then once again in limbo after Vaclik’s injury. It can really undo any good work being done upfield.

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I would be thrilled to have Moise Kean. The thing is a loan spell likely won’t be enough. He’s still so young, and needs real trust over an extended period of time and stability which if its just another 9 month season the thought is already moving on to something else and will just get put aside if he doesn’t bring enough in the first few games. Give him time to climatize to Spain without a metric ton of pressure from the start. He’s talented enough but its always complicated to get a decent deal out of it long term and hard from our financial stand point. We clearly can’t go as deep as we did with Martial, which was still worth to test the waters. But if he is convinced by how we beat Juve last year and wants to come and we manage to smoothen up the deal. I’m ready for it. Expecting nothing tho.

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lol @RyanMoore let me stop you right there on your opening premise. i say dumb shit ALL THE TIME. so, if my take is as bad as you claim, that is FULLY in line with history. and for some context, my statement about goalie (under) value was made with nearly zero reflection or background research. a pure, shoot from the hip type of take that may have been more informed by lazy (also uninformed) observations of the NHL than based on international football.

but setting that aside, you’re counter-argument is basically this:

  1. the market pays for how a player’s contributions convert to wins
  2. analytics exist and are flawless
  3. therefore, the market has spoken, goalies suck

i think its actually a pretty good counterargument and may even be inclined to believe it and walk back my take. but for funsies, if i were to really want to defend my stance i’d make the following respective counter-points:

  1. the market may reward players’ contribution to winning, but if we’re really chicago school free market on this, then we’d think that teams choose players to maximize expected revenues, not wins. those things are pretty heavily correlated (one would think) but you also have to think about marketability. my (uninformed) assumption is that strikers and creative mids can generate way more ticket and jersey sales than center backs or goalies. i dont think the market is blind to this.
  2. analytics certainly do exist and have taken off in recent years. but goalkeepers are a different beast. now, watch as i destroy my own credibility by citing an article about former MLS keeper Matt Turner. (but I’ll also point out its from your very favorite fivethirtyeight). in short, their analysis suggests that the year before he went to the EPL, Turner contributed more wins, by far, than any other player in the league (and was certainly not paid the most). now, i am sure that the analytics are better in european leagues than MLS, so maybe some of those market failures get smoothed out, but if you read the article there are lots of tidbits as to how/why the analytics around goalies is still young and they quote a lot of smarter people than me saying that goalies are likely systematically undervalued. there are links in there too but… i was too lazy to follow them. but anyway, its a good read one way or another, even if you have no interest in MLS because it makes the case why the player whose errors and misplays often turn DIRECTLY into goals and not just possession shifts may, indeed be systematically undervalued.
  3. YOU are dumb and you can take your flawless markets and shove them!

honestly, im just trying this counter take on for size. but i think its an interesting question and while i do think the market holds a lot of signal, im not willing to put total faith in a perfect market with complete information. those are unicorns.

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Yes! I knew I could goad you into an economics smackdown. I definitely had considered adding an asterisk to my argument to suggest maybe there is some sex-appeal value to the goal scorer that simply isn’t present in defensive saves for whatever reason. Maybe because after a defensive move, you never get to run to the corner flag, jump in their air and yell Siiiiuuuuu! Or rather, you could, but I’m pretty sure you’d be a viral sensation for another reason.

Come to think of it, Bounou celebrated that goal he scored way more than any stop he’s ever made, likely including PK saves with hardware on the line.

And yeah, fair enough on both arguments, teams are optimizing on revenues, not wins, per se. And even if they were optimizing on wins directly, the analytics may still be imperfect on contributions to wins. But one would think in that case that with the growth of analytics, the gap would have started to narrow, all else equal. And maybe it has, I honestly haven’t followed those numbers enough to know. What I have learned by heart is the list of goalkeepers who have sold for more than 100 m €. Heck, I know the list of keepers who have sold for more than 50 m €. The former is an empty set ∅, the latter is not far from empty: Kepa, Alisson, Onana, Buffon. Somewhat unrelated to this heated :fire:, angry :rage: debate :laughing:, but how crazy is that? That the world’s best keepers are transferring for 30 and 40 million (or if you’re Sevilla, for 20 million), while you have practically no-name transfers, say James Ward-Prowse, being transferred to West Ham for 35 m €. I dunno, maybe this is the goalkeeper in me, but I really don’t understand how the marginal difference between a baseline keeper and a great keeper is 10-20 m, while the marginal difference between a mediocre midfielder and a great midfielder is 5-10 times that.

But yeah, I’m sensitive to your counter-counter-argument, as you can see. But your argument does sound like a conspicuous $100 bill on the sidewalk for a club who were willing to pay an extra buck for an extra marginal win/return. Right? I mean, assuming keepers are systematically undervalued, any club wanting to outcompete their rivals could overbid them by a dollar, and not only would they get a leg up on their rivals, but they would also be getting improved marginal performance out of their squad. If the market is so unreflective of true value, that would be an excellent opportunity for arbitrage, n-est-ce pas?

*Hope you can see that I’m goading you again… :rage: :joy:

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I really never understood why GK’s are undervalued in the market. Always have been and it still continues, although they are one of the most (if not the most) crucial parts of a team imo.

Football is very different from other sports and you can’t apply Moneyball tactics in it and expect to win / have success, so most of the metrics do not really apply. Goalies have historically been the key parts of successful clubs.

Look at RM, Atletico, Bayern, City, Juventus … any big club winning or that have won lots of trophies that you can think of. The times their fantastic goalkeepers have bailed these teams out in crucial moments… countless.

The only exception that I have in mind right now is Barca. Their outfield players were SO fucking good that they totally dominated the sport with an average goalkeeper like Victor Valdes. But that’s extremely rare to pull off.

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En-Nesyri to West Ham rumours springing up again. There’s even talk that Chelsea is entering the race (this part i do not believe). What is our valuation for YEN’s transfer?

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40?

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ha! i mean, your point is strongest in that the gap is not a gap, its a gulf. and the financial incentives of getting it right (using resources efficiently and maximizing wins/revenues) is ENORMOUS. the absence of keepers in top transfers is really stark and fairly shocking.

but i do re-suggest the article i sent for a lazy sunday (especially for the fellow nerds out there). it was just two years ago and suggests that the analytics really aren’t there yet. as shendm claims, there is lots going on that matters that they aren’t capturing. but i also agree, that as time goes on, they improve (even if they will never be perfect either and things like how players fit together will be elusive for a long long time and maybe forever).

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The goalkeeper…

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https://twitter.com/harfahd/status/1693619100902121730?s=20

Another club in shambles at least finding solutions for transfers. Very impressive.

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https://twitter.com/FabrizioRomano/status/1693717806733271504

Montiel to Nottingham Forest

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Not a fan that this is a loan with buy option. That way, if he gets hurt, they just ship him right back. No sweat for them, we’ve gained nothing, other than salary offload. Seems like a bum deal

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Looks to be an obligatory buy clause, not sure under what conditions and if they are set badly they can just pull out just before completing them but if it’s something like, avoid relegation, it’s alright I think.

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Sign horseface Ramos ffs! Nothing to lose at this point… our defense is fucked anyways.

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Apart from the dressing room perhaps.

Though I am coming round to the idea, the central defenders have been a nightmare, Ramos has also been playing injured since he left Real Madrid for the French Riviera Paris

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