It looks almost certain that La Liga will be granted 7 spots for Europe competitions next year, and so that would be that we currently sit 4 points out of that spot, yet would also require us to jump 4 spots.
It won’t be easy, but it’s certainly possible.
Right now after 29 matches -
7. Rayo with 40 points
8. Celta Vigo with 40
9. Mallorca with 40
10. Real Sociedad with 38
11. Sevilla with 36
Jornada 30 Matches
RAYO VALLECANO vs Espanyol
MALLORCA vs CELTA VIGO
Las Palmas vs REAL SOCIEDAD
SEVILLA vs Atletico Madrid
We likely aren’t getting points, so we need as many draws as possible.
So Sevillistas, what do you think our chances are of playing in Europe next year?
Ask me two weeks from now, after the Valencia match. For reference, I just found myself doing the math on the likelihood the relegation line could make it up to 36 points if follow the example of Garcia Pimienta’s last team and we don’t win a match for the rest of the season…
Hoping I’m wrong to be alarmed, but last couple matches have been less than convincing.
Do you really think we are up for a potential relegation fight?
I think it’s up to 4 teams in the battle, with the obvious one already packing their bags.
Leganes, Alaves, Valladolid and Las Palmas are (to me), clearly set to battle to have one of them stay up. I don’t even think we are near that level and are already 9 points clear.
Spain looks favourite, along with England, to finish in the top 2 of the UEFA Coefficient for this season, which would mean Spain get 5 in UEFA Champions League and 8 overall. In that case, 8th would be enough for the Conference League unless R Sociedad win Copa del Rey. Whether Sevilla can do that or not is another matter but the clubs you’d need to overtake are Celta, Mallorca and R Sociedad. The last have been weirdly rubbish this season, while Mallorca have been useless in 2025: 2-4-4 in La Liga with those wins being narrow ones at home against relegation strugglers Las Palmas and Espanyol. Celta are the tough one: 4-3-0 and clearly in form. They’re favourites to get 7th-8th along with Rayo.
As for relegation, well yeah, good to not be complacent, but with a 9-point cushion, not happening. Though Girona in 2019 sort of did it (9 points ahead of relegation with 10 games left and got 3 points in their last 10 games to go down.) Valladolid are sunk and probably 2 from Leganes, Las Palmas or Alaves to join them. Espanyol or Valencia are not out of the woods either, but have both been better of late and look less likely.
Fair, but on the flip side . . . If we got a bit more coin and could afford a new player for 2-3 positions…maybe? But yeah, I wouldn’t eschew the extra cash, but I don’t disagree, we probably could use another season of just La Liga and CdR before we rush into dreaming big again. Then again, Mendilibar managed a trophy in a season where we were in relegation zone, so there’s always hope. And I don’t think anyone looks back and thinks “if we hadn’t been in Europa that season, we would never have landed in relegation zone!”
Or is that revisionist? Ie. Does anyone think UCL and UEL efforts under Sampaoli et al was what landed us in relegation zone?
We aren’t good enough to get Europe and that looks beyond us. Likewise we look to have enough points to avoid relegation and should be too good to go down. We should be fine and done enough.
However, I just want us to get to 40 points as fast as possible to be sure. I’m still a little twitchy as all teams at the bottom are playing better. I don’t want it to get close or go down to 3 or 4 points as it could get arse clenching time.
The last thing this club needs is to go into free fall the gap to narrow with all the drama at club. We can end this fear winning tomorrow or getting points in some of our next few games. However, lose next 3 involving Valencia and Alaves and if leganes/Las Palmas pick points it could get scary.
I hope the players can deliver the goods to end this fear starting tomorrow. I don’t think we go down but I don’t even think a lot of us can stomach a scenario of sweating on the unthinkable happening just being clear of the drop either.
We shouldn’t get dragged in but at the same time we aren’t a good team. I watched us all season and we been bailed out a lot by individual brilliance of mainly Lukebakio. Relying on hanging in games and him doing the magic. Collectively as a team we not great and the manager is suspect.
Lukebakio and occasionally a couple of others like Juanlu, Vargas, bade, has basically carried us over the line to safety. I’m so glad Dodi has stayed fit. That said we need to finish the job because the teams are improving below us. All it takes is a negative 2 game swing against us and it could get super close and nervy. As we are a club in turmoil right now with our front office, fans, team, manager under pressure we can’t afford to even get dragged in to it.
Let’s hope we put it to bed in next couple of games.
You’re still more likely to get Europe than relegation but both are looking increasingly unlikely. Bilbao will get the 4th UCL spot and the likely 5th is between Villarreal and a team I won’t name out of respect for you all (it rhymes with “lettuce”.) Celta will probably get the last Europa place and the Conference place looks between Rayo, Mallorca and Sociedad. If you don’t win against Atleti today you’re probably done.
As for relegation, Valladolid obviously down and I think Leganes and Las Palmas will join them. Though I wouldn’t rule out Alaves, they still have to play both Madrids as well as Bilbao away.
Las Palmas have had the craziest “new manager bounce that didn’t last” ever:
First 9 games: 0-3-6 for 3 points
<fire Carrión, hire Diego Martínez>
Last 9 games of 2024: 6-1-2 for 19 points
2025 so far has been 4 draws and 7 defeats and a likely 8th defeat soon to finish.
